Methodology and results

Impact of climate change

The results obtained in this stage, coordinated by Partner 1 - the National and Capo d'Istria University of Athens (UNKA) - have provided important information on the risks and possible effects on the flora due to climate change, thus allowing for the development of prediction models regarding the population trends of the future geographic distribution of species in the Mediterranean Basin.

Sixty-four species were selected and divided into three groups: A, B, and C. Group A: species with a single noteworthy population and few populations nearby; group B: endemic or sub-endemic species with populations that can be found at different altitudes and latitudes or in various habitats; Group C: species with widespread distribution in the Mediterranean. At the same time, with the help of specialists on the subject, two climate models were chosen and applied to the chosen species.

The majority of the species showed a wide germination temperature interval and the applied climate change models had a scant influence over their survival potential. Nevertheless, the effects of climate change will, on the other hand, lead to catastrophic consequences for some species, above all those that have a restricted germination temperature interval or species that need stratification periods in order to germinate. In these cases, the species will not be able to complete their vegetative cycle and therefore will not have the chance to produce seeds. The germination of seeds present in the soil will continue during the course of the seasons, leading to the progressive impoverishment of the soil seed bank and, as was foreseen, to the disappearance of these species if they do not find themselves in a sheltered habitat with more favourable conditions.